2025 · Week 6

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

14·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.145EPA / play-0.008
  • 48.8%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback+0.041
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.073
  • 11.0%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +3.77CPOE-3.36
  • 46.0%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.73Points / drive1.82
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. ATL are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W17ATL @ BUF15–29BUF
2017 · W4BUF @ ATL23–17BUF
2013 · W13ATL @ BUF34–31ATL
2009 · W16BUF @ ATL3–31ATL
2005 · W3ATL @ BUF24–16ATL
2001 · W15BUF @ ATL30–33ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00664Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 12:15783Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 8:013-2Punt7–7
BUFQ1 6:2630Punt7–7
ATLQ1 5:251066Touchdown7–14
BUFQ1 0:26717Punt7–14
ATLQ2 11:51281Touchdown7–21
BUFQ2 11:09527Punt7–21
ATLQ2 8:091162Turnover on downs7–21
BUFQ2 1:5634Punt7–21
ATLQ2 1:12616Punt7–21
BUFQ2 0:1510Turnover7–21
ATLQ2 0:10248End of half7–21
BUFQ3 15:00973Touchdown14–21
ATLQ3 9:2358Punt14–21
BUFQ3 6:071024Turnover on downs14–21
ATLQ3 0:58825Missed field goal14–21
BUFQ4 12:2439Punt14–21
ATLQ4 10:1738Punt14–21
BUFQ4 8:3030Punt14–21
ATLQ4 6:431368Field goal14–24
BUFQ4 1:43654Turnover14–24
ATLQ4 0:4100End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/2618022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook17875.10
Josh Allen6427.00
Ty Johnson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer22600
Khalil Shakir35330
Tyrell Shavers35270
Dawson Knox12191
Ray Davis22191
Ty Johnson12110
Keon Coleman36110
Elijah Moore0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.20/3225010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson191708.91
Tyler Allgeier10323.21
Michael Penix Jr.263.00
Feleipe Franks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London10161581
Bijan Robinson68680
Kyle Pitts34180
Tyler Allgeier1160
Casey Washington0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.2%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.33