Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play-0.008
- 48.8%Success rate44.5%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.041
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.073
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.77CPOE-3.36
- 46.0%Third-down rate33.5%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.73Points / drive1.82
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. ATL are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/26 | 180 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 20/32 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 19 | 170 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 10 | 16 | 158 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Casey Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.33