Closing spread
BUF -5
Total
48
Model margin
+4.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.076
- 44.7%Success rate39.7%
- +0.068EPA / dropback-0.107
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.037
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.86CPOE-3.82
- 42.4%Third-down rate33.7%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.70Points / drive1.33
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/47 | 311 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 23 | 84 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 38 | 38.0 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 10 | 14 | 143 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 6 | 15 | 73 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Darius Johnson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 18/32 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 15 | 149 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 |
| EJ Manuel | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+4.76