2013 · Week 13

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

34·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

Rogers Centre · dome · a_turf

Closing spread

BUF -5

Total

48

Model margin

+4.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBills
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.076
  • 44.7%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback-0.107
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.037
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.86CPOE-3.82
  • 42.4%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.33
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6BUF @ ATL14–24ATL
2021 · W17ATL @ BUF15–29BUF
2017 · W4BUF @ ATL23–17BUF
2009 · W16BUF @ ATL3–31ATL
2005 · W3ATL @ BUF24–16ATL
2001 · W15BUF @ ATL30–33ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–BUF
ATLQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:50484Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 10:543-7Punt0–7
BUFQ1 8:561044Touchdown0–14
ATLQ1 5:00566Touchdown7–14
BUFQ1 2:30519Punt7–14
ATLQ1 0:09521Punt7–14
BUFQ2 12:491456Field goal7–17
ATLQ2 7:24671Touchdown14–17
BUFQ2 4:493-4Punt14–17
ATLQ2 2:49836Field goal17–17
BUFQ3 15:0033Punt17–17
ATLQ3 13:431265Touchdown24–17
BUFQ3 8:13423Punt24–17
ATLQ3 6:5125Turnover24–23
BUFQ3 6:10121Touchdown24–24
ATLQ3 6:01837Punt24–24
BUFQ3 1:3632Punt24–24
ATLQ3 0:32610Punt24–24
BUFQ4 12:51372Touchdown24–31
ATLQ4 11:4836Punt24–31
BUFQ4 10:4833Punt24–31
ATLQ4 9:58826Punt24–31
BUFQ4 6:02311Punt24–31
ATLQ4 4:261455Touchdown31–31
BUFQ4 1:28646Turnover31–31
ATLQ4 0:2010End of half31–31
BUFOT225Turnover31–31
ATLOT430Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/4731110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson23843.72
Antone Smith13838.01
Matt Ryan2178.50
Jacquizz Rodgers4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White10141430
Harry Douglas615730
Tony Gonzalez47421
Darius Johnson24160
Levine Toilolo11120
Jacquizz Rodgers11110
Antone Smith1260
Patrick DiMarco1150
Steven Jackson1100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel18/3221010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller151499.91
Fred Jackson11423.81
EJ Manuel430.81
Tashard Choice111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scott Chandler46630
Steve Johnson58550
Robert Woods23390
Fred Jackson44361
C.J. Spiller2480
Trevor Graham0200
Marquise Goodwin0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+4.76