Closing spread
BUF -14
Total
46.5
Model margin
+7.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.091
- 41.2%Success rate47.4%
- -0.028EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.162EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.85CPOE+1.95
- 38.5%Third-down rate47.6%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.58Points / drive2.52
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 13/23 | 197 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Frank Darby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11/26 | 120 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Zack Moss | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.96