2021 · Week 17

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

15·29

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 26°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -14

Total

46.5

Model margin

+7.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBills
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.091
  • 41.2%Success rate47.4%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.162EPA / rush-0.048
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.85CPOE+1.95
  • 38.5%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.58Points / drive2.52
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6BUF @ ATL14–24ATL
2017 · W4BUF @ ATL23–17BUF
2013 · W13ATL @ BUF34–31ATL
2009 · W16BUF @ ATL3–31ATL
2005 · W3ATL @ BUF24–16ATL
2001 · W15BUF @ ATL30–33ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–BUF
ATLQ1 15:00629Safety2–0
ATLQ1 11:043-4Punt2–0
BUFQ1 9:251772Touchdown2–7
ATLQ1 3:152-7Turnover2–7
BUFQ1 2:27618Touchdown2–14
ATLQ1 0:351045Field goal5–14
BUFQ2 10:081267Turnover5–14
ATLQ2 3:20580Touchdown12–14
BUFQ2 1:48212Turnover12–14
ATLQ2 1:06745Field goal15–14
BUFQ3 15:0033Turnover15–14
ATLQ3 14:013-7Punt15–14
BUFQ3 12:321180Touchdown15–22
ATLQ3 5:56517Punt15–22
BUFQ3 3:041370Touchdown15–29
ATLQ4 10:461267Turnover on downs15–29
BUFQ4 5:42832End of half15–29

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan13/2319700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis8425.31
Cordarrelle Patterson9283.10
Qadree Ollison3196.30
Matt Ryan273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts24690
Russell Gage35500
Parker Hesse33310
Cordarrelle Patterson22240
Mike Davis12150
Olamide Zaccheaus2380
Frank Darby0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen11/2612003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary231104.82
Josh Allen15815.42
Zack Moss5397.80
Isaiah McKenzie133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs59520
Gabe Davis33400
Cole Beasley26220
Isaiah McKenzie1260
Devin Singletary0100
Dawson Knox0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.96