2001 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

10·17

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ARI -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

+3.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCardinals
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.028
  • 36.1%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.132EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.182
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 32.7%Third-down rate28.9%
  • 32.6%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.12
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.034EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 13–7 since 1999

ARI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 11-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ARI @ DAL33–30ARI
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:003-10Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:3033Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:0731Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:471244Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 4:00513Punt0–0
DALQ1 2:34514Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 0:0538Punt3–0
DALQ2 13:2810Opp touchdown3–7
ARIQ2 13:1900Opp touchdown3–7
DALQ2 13:19365Touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 11:4330Punt10–7
DALQ2 10:1039Punt10–7
ARIQ2 8:30876Touchdown10–14
DALQ2 4:52313Punt10–14
ARIQ2 2:3834Punt10–14
DALQ2 1:4523Turnover10–14
ARIQ2 1:13530Field goal10–17
DALQ2 0:221-1End of half10–17
DALQ3 15:001658Turnover on downs10–17
ARIQ3 5:511062Missed field goal10–17
DALQ3 0:2765Punt10–17
ARIQ4 12:46515Punt10–17
DALQ4 10:281192Missed field goal10–17
ARIQ4 3:19610Punt10–17
DALQ4 1:03438End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter16/2817612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith261284.90
Troy Hambrick4276.80
Michael Wiley3134.30
Quincy Carter5122.40
Raghib Ismail1-2-2.00
Reggie Swinton1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Swinton35721
Mike Lucky22290
Joey Galloway33280
Jackie Harris34210
Emmitt Smith11110
Terry Witherspoon1190
Michael Wiley3460
Darrin Chiaverini0100
Raghib Ismail0200
Troy Hambrick0300

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer17/3114400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman14584.11
Thomas Jones4184.50
Jake Plummer100.00
David Boston1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders23690
David Boston311260
Arnold Jackson46140
Thomas Jones33120
Tywan Mitchell24110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.62