Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.028
- 36.1%Success rate39.3%
- -0.132EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.182
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- 32.7%Third-down rate28.9%
- 32.6%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
- 0.93Points / drive1.12
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 16/28 | 176 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 26 | 128 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Swinton | 3 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| Mike Lucky | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Terry Witherspoon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/31 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| David Boston | 3 | 11 | 26 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.62