2001 · Week 16
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -1.5
Total
34
Model margin
+2.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.025
- 39.6%Success rate39.6%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- 36.2%Third-down rate35.3%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
- 1.28Points / drive1.43
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 21/37 | 205 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 11 | 38 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 13/29 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.09