2001 · Week 16

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

10·22

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -1.5

Total

34

Model margin

+2.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.025
  • 39.6%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.43
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7BAL @ TB41–31BAL
2022 · W8BAL @ TB27–22BAL
2018 · W15TB @ BAL12–20BAL
2014 · W6BAL @ TB48–17BAL
2010 · W12TB @ BAL10–17BAL
2006 · W1BAL @ TB27–0BAL
2002 · W2TB @ BAL25–0TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TB
BALQ1 15:00614Turnover0–0
TBQ1 12:393-1Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:0632Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:083-4Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:3235Punt0–0
TBQ1 7:22736Field goal0–3
BALQ1 3:291079Touchdown7–3
TBQ2 14:00515Punt7–3
BALQ2 11:303-8Punt7–3
TBQ2 9:57616Field goal7–6
BALQ2 7:3837Punt7–6
TBQ2 5:52417Field goal7–9
BALQ2 3:5830Turnover7–9
TBQ2 3:2311Touchdown7–16
BALQ2 3:05619Punt7–16
TBQ2 1:09316End of half7–16
TBQ3 15:0033Punt7–16
BALQ3 13:316-6Punt7–16
TBQ3 10:16520Punt7–16
BALQ3 7:18429Punt7–16
TBQ3 4:30530Missed field goal7–16
BALQ3 1:57769Field goal10–16
TBQ4 13:26935Punt10–16
BALQ4 8:35928Punt10–16
TBQ4 3:3130Punt10–16
BALQ4 2:56619Turnover on downs10–16
TBQ4 1:53231Touchdown10–22
BALQ4 1:3500Turnover10–22
TBQ4 1:2700Turnover10–22

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac21/3720512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen20743.70
Moe Williams5153.00
Elvis Grbac111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor48511
Qadry Ismail35380
Shannon Sharpe511380
Todd Heap23320
Terry Allen45210
Moe Williams22120
Brandon Stokley0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson13/299000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn13473.60
Brad Johnson3-1-0.31
Reidel Anthony1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson411290
Dave Moore35210
Jacquez Green23180
Warrick Dunn24140
Karl Williams0100
Todd Yoder0100
Jameel Cook0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.09