2024 · Week 7
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
51
Model margin
+0.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play+0.133
- 49.4%Success rate49.4%
- +0.328EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.053EPA / rush+0.012
- 12.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- +4.67CPOE+3.56
- 47.9%Third-down rate50.8%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.80Points / drive2.71
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/22 | 281 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 169 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 4 | 121 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 4 | 41 | 2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 31/45 | 370 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 8 | 10 | 100 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 6 | 71 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 3 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79