2024 · Week 7

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

41·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

Total

51

Model margin

+0.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.199EPA / play+0.133
  • 49.4%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.053EPA / rush+0.012
  • 12.0%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +4.67CPOE+3.56
  • 47.9%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.80Points / drive2.71
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W8BAL @ TB27–22BAL
2018 · W15TB @ BAL12–20BAL
2014 · W6BAL @ TB48–17BAL
2010 · W12TB @ BAL10–17BAL
2006 · W1BAL @ TB27–0BAL
2002 · W2TB @ BAL25–0TB
2001 · W16BAL @ TB10–22TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TB
TBQ1 15:00870Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 10:2768Punt0–7
TBQ1 6:051170Field goal0–10
BALQ1 0:02670Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 12:291262Turnover7–10
BALQ2 6:10590Touchdown14–10
TBQ2 4:23417Turnover14–10
BALQ2 2:581265Field goal17–10
TBQ2 0:0400End of half17–10
BALQ3 15:00532Field goal20–10
TBQ3 12:20633Missed field goal20–10
BALQ3 8:22460Touchdown27–10
TBQ3 7:25421Punt27–10
BALQ3 4:58592Touchdown34–10
TBQ3 2:5343Punt34–10
BALQ3 0:53521Turnover34–10
TBQ4 13:32530Touchdown34–18
BALQ4 11:24870Touchdown41–18
TBQ4 6:32975Touchdown41–24
BALQ4 3:4600Touchdown41–24
TBQ4 3:46757Touchdown41–31
BALQ4 1:5830Punt41–31
TBQ4 1:34944End of half41–31

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2228150

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry1516911.30
Lamar Jackson9525.80
Zay Flowers11919.00
Justice Hill540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashod Bateman441211
Justice Hill33441
Mark Andrews44412
Nelson Agholor12200
Isaiah Likely24170
Charlie Kolar11140
Derrick Henry11131
Zay Flowers11110
Patrick Ricard0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield31/4537032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White10404.00
Sean Tucker5295.80
Bucky Irving9232.61
Baker Mayfield5224.40
Jalen McMillan11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton8101000
Rachaad White66712
Chris Godwin Jr.79650
Bucky Irving33540
Mike Evans13251
Trey Palmer13160
Sterling Shepard11150
Jalen McMillan38150
Sean Tucker1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.79