2022 · Week 8
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TB -2
Total
46
Model margin
+2.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.030
- 45.3%Success rate44.0%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.052
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.208
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.5%
- -1.40CPOE+0.30
- 42.2%Third-down rate38.1%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.87Points / drive1.63
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 27/38 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| James Proche | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/44 | 325 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 11 | 123 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.51