2022 · Week 8

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

27·22

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TB -2

Total

46

Model margin

+2.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.030
  • 45.3%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.052
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.208
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -1.40CPOE+0.30
  • 42.2%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.63
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7BAL @ TB41–31BAL
2018 · W15TB @ BAL12–20BAL
2014 · W6BAL @ TB48–17BAL
2010 · W12TB @ BAL10–17BAL
2006 · W1BAL @ TB27–0BAL
2002 · W2TB @ BAL25–0TB
2001 · W16BAL @ TB10–22TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TB
BALQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:3732Field goal3–0
TBQ1 11:03970Touchdown3–7
BALQ1 6:5633Punt3–7
TBQ1 5:07950Field goal3–10
BALQ1 0:263-12Punt3–10
TBQ2 14:1236Punt3–10
BALQ2 12:441360Punt3–10
TBQ2 5:4732Punt3–10
BALQ2 4:48951Turnover on downs3–10
TBQ2 1:55624Punt3–10
BALQ2 0:46529Missed field goal3–10
TBQ3 15:0034Punt3–10
BALQ3 13:58977Touchdown10–10
TBQ3 9:05428Punt10–10
BALQ3 6:571180Touchdown17–10
TBQ3 0:05763Field goal17–13
BALQ4 12:26993Touchdown24–13
TBQ4 6:551042Field goal24–16
BALQ4 4:54449Field goal27–16
TBQ4 2:121260Touchdown27–22
BALQ4 0:4900End of half27–22

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson27/3823820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards11655.90
Kenyan Drake7628.90
Lamar Jackson9434.80
Devin Duvernay23316.51
Justice Hill4287.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely67771
Demarcus Robinson68640
Mark Andrews35330
Devin Duvernay44310
James Proche34240
Kenyan Drake4451
Josh Oliver1140
Rashod Bateman0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/4432510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette9242.71
Rachaad White4194.80
Tom Brady111.00
Julio Jones100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans6111230
Chris Godwin Jr.611750
Leonard Fournette33340
Rachaad White33240
Julio Jones24211
Cade Otton25150
Scott Miller22130
Breshad Perriman11110
Ko Kieft1190
Kyle Rudolph0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.51