2002 · Week 2
Final
Ravens Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
32
Model margin
-0.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.058
- 42.2%Success rate41.6%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.044
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- 35.3%Third-down rate38.2%
- 41.7%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.22Points / drive1.09
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.206EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. BAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 24/31 | 211 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 16/38 | 141 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| John Jones | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javin Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.35