2014 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

48·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.111
  • 44.2%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.149EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.190
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -0.77CPOE-1.50
  • 41.5%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.33
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7BAL @ TB41–31BAL
2022 · W8BAL @ TB27–22BAL
2018 · W15TB @ BAL12–20BAL
2010 · W12TB @ BAL10–17BAL
2006 · W1BAL @ TB27–0BAL
2002 · W2TB @ BAL25–0TB
2001 · W16BAL @ TB10–22TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TB
BALQ1 15:00485Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 13:11630Turnover7–0
BALQ1 10:41422Touchdown14–0
TBQ1 9:223-1Punt14–0
BALQ1 7:44750Touchdown21–0
TBQ1 5:003-9Punt21–0
BALQ1 3:32867Touchdown28–0
TBQ1 0:0130Punt28–0
BALQ2 14:41259Touchdown35–0
TBQ2 13:5730Punt35–0
BALQ2 12:25730Field goal38–0
TBQ2 8:41723Punt38–0
BALQ2 5:23415Punt38–0
TBQ2 3:07958Missed field goal38–0
BALQ2 0:29319Missed field goal38–0
TBQ3 15:00856Field goal38–3
BALQ3 10:50417Punt38–3
TBQ3 8:33777Touchdown38–10
BALQ3 5:461165Touchdown45–10
TBQ3 0:07676Touchdown45–17
BALQ4 12:19620Field goal48–17
TBQ4 7:531154Turnover on downs48–17
BALQ4 3:42329Turnover48–17
TBQ4 2:0740Turnover on downs48–17
BALQ4 1:4100End of half48–17

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/2830650

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett141117.90
Bernard Pierce15322.11
Lorenzo Taliaferro22914.50
Tyrod Taylor4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith561101
Torrey Smith45512
Owen Daniels23340
Michael Campanaro22281
Kamar Aiken22201
Lorenzo Taliaferro22180
Crockett Gillmore22160
Jacoby Jones0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon24/4431421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin11454.10
Bobby Rainey7426.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Louis Murphy79721
Vincent Jackson413660
Austin Seferian-Jenkins45580
Mike Evans48551
Robert Herron22310
Brandon Myers22290
Doug Martin1230
Bobby Rainey0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.92
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.40