2014 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.111
- 44.2%Success rate38.5%
- +0.149EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.190
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- -0.77CPOE-1.50
- 41.5%Third-down rate36.6%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.21Points / drive1.33
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/28 | 306 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 6 | 110 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 5 | 51 | 2 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 2 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 24/44 | 314 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Murphy | 7 | 9 | 72 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 13 | 66 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| Robert Herron | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.40