2018 · Week 15

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

12·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -8.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapRavens
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.035
  • 44.9%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.229EPA / rush+0.003
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +3.11CPOE-3.77
  • 46.7%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.01
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. BAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7BAL @ TB41–31BAL
2022 · W8BAL @ TB27–22BAL
2014 · W6BAL @ TB48–17BAL
2010 · W12TB @ BAL10–17BAL
2006 · W1BAL @ TB27–0BAL
2002 · W2TB @ BAL25–0TB
2001 · W16BAL @ TB10–22TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–BAL
TBQ1 15:00421Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:48310Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:53615Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:2943Punt0–0
TBQ1 6:59514Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:07632Turnover0–0
TBQ1 1:24948Touchdown6–0
BALQ2 12:081668Touchdown6–7
TBQ2 3:58772Field goal9–7
BALQ2 1:48763Field goal9–10
TBQ2 0:0900End of half9–10
BALQ3 15:001088Touchdown9–17
TBQ3 10:03528Punt9–17
TBQ3 7:49415Field goal12–17
BALQ3 5:431453Field goal12–20
TBQ4 13:3210Turnover12–20
BALQ4 13:194-4Punt12–20
TBQ4 11:22829Turnover on downs12–20
BALQ4 7:08960End of half12–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston13/2515701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber19854.51
Jameis Winston200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans491210
Adam Humphries46230
Cameron Brate1290
Peyton Barber2240
Jacquizz Rodgers1110
Chris Godwin Jr.0300
Ronald Jones12-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson14/2313110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards191045.51
Lamar Jackson18955.30
Kenneth Dixon11484.40
Chris Moore1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead56580
Mark Andrews24310
Hayden Hurst33200
John Brown1390
Maxx Williams1260
Chris Moore1151
Kenneth Dixon1120
Michael Crabtree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.11