2018 · Week 15
Final
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
BAL -8.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.035
- 44.9%Success rate45.8%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.229EPA / rush+0.003
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.11CPOE-3.77
- 46.7%Third-down rate45.4%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.93Points / drive2.01
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. BAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 13/25 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 9 | 121 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/23 | 131 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.11