2006 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
33
Model margin
-1.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.186
- 40.5%Success rate37.6%
- +0.108EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.0%Explosive rate6.4%
- +3.00CPOE-4.51
- 42.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.57Points / drive0.82
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. TB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/27 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 17/29 | 133 | 0 | 3 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.61