2010 · Week 12
Final
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.028
- 42.0%Success rate41.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.102
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- +2.31CPOE+2.93
- 42.5%Third-down rate38.4%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.88Points / drive1.78
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 6–2 since 1999
BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. BAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 17/37 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 9 | 44 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Ryan Purvis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/35 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 8 | 13 | 87 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 4 | 79 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 7 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78