2010 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

10·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapRavens
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.028
  • 42.0%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.102
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +2.31CPOE+2.93
  • 42.5%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.78
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 6 straight. Meetings average 41.1 points. BAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7BAL @ TB41–31BAL
2022 · W8BAL @ TB27–22BAL
2018 · W15TB @ BAL12–20BAL
2014 · W6BAL @ TB48–17BAL
2006 · W1BAL @ TB27–0BAL
2002 · W2TB @ BAL25–0TB
2001 · W16BAL @ TB10–22TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–BAL
TBQ1 15:00841Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:49743Punt0–0
TBQ1 6:4436Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:37410Punt0–0
TBQ1 2:5834Punt0–0
BALQ1 1:59614Field goal0–3
TBQ2 13:54516Punt0–3
BALQ2 11:29740Turnover0–3
TBQ2 8:56932Field goal3–3
BALQ2 4:32476Touchdown3–10
TBQ2 3:043-3Punt3–10
BALQ2 1:54631Touchdown3–17
TBQ2 0:3200End of half3–17
BALQ3 15:0039Punt3–17
TBQ3 12:57429Punt3–17
BALQ3 10:2946Punt3–17
TBQ3 8:26434Punt3–17
BALQ3 6:41845Punt3–17
TBQ3 3:1338Punt3–17
BALQ3 2:11316Punt3–17
BALQ3 0:151-6Punt3–17
BALQ4 15:0019Punt3–17
TBQ4 14:15420Punt3–17
BALQ4 11:58518Punt3–17
TBQ4 7:431377Touchdown10–17
BALQ4 3:05540End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman17/3716210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount13554.20
Josh Freeman6274.50
Cadillac Williams4194.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow49441
Cadillac Williams58410
John Gilmore12300
Mike Williams27200
Ryan Purvis11120
Arrelious Benn3690
Micheal Spurlock1360
Sammie Stroughter0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/3528921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice19824.30
Willis McGahee4123.00
Joe Flacco3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason813871
Todd Heap24791
Ray Rice78470
T.J. Houshmandzadeh23360
Anquan Boldin34270
Willis McGahee33130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.78