Closing spread
STL -13
Total
58.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. STL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 9:29 | 12 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:25 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 14:18 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LA | Q2 9:45 | 2 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| IND | Q2 8:44 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LA | Q2 4:48 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| IND | Q2 1:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–28 |
| LA | Q2 1:05 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–35 |
| IND | Q2 0:27 | 1 | -13 | End of half | 14–35 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 17–35 |
| LA | Q3 9:52 | 4 | 35 | Turnover | 17–35 |
| IND | Q3 7:23 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–35 |
| LA | Q3 5:46 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–35 |
| IND | Q3 3:55 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–35 |
| LA | Q3 1:43 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 17–42 |
| IND | Q4 13:21 | 7 | 41 | Turnover | 17–42 |
| LA | Q4 10:11 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 17–42 |
| IND | Q4 6:58 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–42 |
| LA | Q4 5:47 | 9 | 39 | End of half | 17–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 15/28 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kevin McDougal | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.20
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.