Closing spread
LA -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.025
- 44.9%Success rate41.5%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.108
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.54CPOE-3.92
- 41.4%Third-down rate34.4%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.13Points / drive1.78
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. IND are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/40 | 319 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 25 | 103 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 10 | 163 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 5 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 11/25 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Ogletree | 3 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.03
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.84