2023 · Week 4

Final / OT

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

29·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Anthony Richardson

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

LA -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapColts
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.025
  • 44.9%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.108
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -3.54CPOE-3.92
  • 41.4%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.78
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 6–2 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. IND are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4IND @ LA20–27RAMS
2021 · W2LA @ IND27–24RAMS
2017 · W1IND @ LA9–46RAMS
2013 · W10STL @ IND38–8RAMS
2009 · W7IND @ STL42–6IND
2005 · W6STL @ IND28–45IND
2001 · W16IND @ STL17–42RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–IND
LAQ1 15:00960Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 11:35614Punt7–0
LAQ1 8:181079Touchdown14–0
INDQ1 3:40335Turnover14–0
LAQ1 2:32748Field goal17–0
INDQ2 12:5231Punt17–0
LAQ2 11:17950Field goal20–0
INDQ2 5:48960Missed field goal20–0
LAQ2 1:45535Missed field goal20–0
INDQ3 15:006-1Punt20–0
LAQ3 12:42948Field goal23–0
INDQ3 7:17475Touchdown23–8
LAQ3 5:2620Turnover23–8
INDQ3 5:1776Turnover on downs23–8
LAQ3 3:36930Missed field goal23–8
INDQ4 14:16757Touchdown23–15
LAQ4 11:45618Punt23–15
INDQ4 7:291383Touchdown23–23
LAQ4 1:5635Punt23–23
INDQ4 1:3230Punt23–23
LAQ4 1:09519Punt23–23
INDQ4 0:0500End of half23–23
LAOT875Touchdown29–23

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4031911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams251034.12
Ronnie Rivers9475.20
Matthew Stafford2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua9101631
Tyler Higbee511640
Van Jefferson23290
Tutu Atwell59240
Kyren Williams33240
Ronnie Rivers22100
Brycen Hopkins1150

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson11/2520020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss18703.90
Anthony Richardson10565.61
Trey Sermon372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Ogletree34481
Alec Pierce12380
Mo Alie-Cox11351
Josh Downs23340
Kylen Granson25240
Michael Pittman15150
Isaiah McKenzie1360
Zack Moss0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.03
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.84