Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutHarvey DahlGKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulBrady QuinnQBHip· DNP
- DoubtfulLance KendricksTEHand· DNP
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBHip· Limited
- ProbableZac StacyRBFoot· Full
Colts
- OutDelano HowellSNeck· DNP
- OutGregory TolerCBGroin· DNP
- OutJosh ChapmanDTKnee· DNP
- OutJosh GordyCBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableHugh ThorntonGCalf· Full
- QuestionableTrent RichardsonRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableCam JohnsonLBKnee· Full
- ProbableDarrius Heyward-BeyWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableRobert MathisLBShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Colts
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. IND are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:12 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:12 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:16 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:41 | 9 | 47 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:05 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:59 | 4 | 43 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| IND | Q2 14:30 | 11 | 35 | Opp touchdown | 21–0 |
| IND | Q2 10:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:03 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 28–0 |
| IND | Q2 6:58 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 28–0 |
| LA | Q2 3:21 | 5 | 13 | End of half | 28–0 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 35–0 |
| IND | Q3 13:55 | 6 | 78 | Turnover | 35–0 |
| LA | Q3 11:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 35–0 |
| IND | Q3 10:27 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 35–0 |
| LA | Q3 10:01 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 38–0 |
| IND | Q3 5:15 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 38–8 |
| LA | Q3 1:35 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 38–8 |
| IND | Q3 0:26 | 10 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 38–8 |
| LA | Q4 12:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 38–8 |
| IND | Q4 10:13 | 3 | 29 | Turnover | 38–8 |
| LA | Q4 9:12 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 38–8 |
| IND | Q4 5:24 | 6 | 68 | Turnover | 38–8 |
| LA | Q4 3:29 | 4 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 38–8 |
| IND | Q4 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–8 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 29/47 | 353 | 1 | 3 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2/5 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 8 | 130 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 5 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 1 | 57 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| David Reed | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.