Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. IND are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 29/47 | 353 | 1 | 3 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2/5 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 8 | 130 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 5 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 1 | 57 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| David Reed | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.