2017 · Week 1

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Scott Tolzien

9·46

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Rams

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRams
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.054
  • 38.7%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback+0.131
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.050
  • 6.7%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -4.56CPOE-1.32
  • 38.0%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive2.27
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 6–2 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. LA are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4IND @ LA20–27RAMS
2023 · W4LA @ IND29–23RAMS
2021 · W2LA @ IND27–24RAMS
2013 · W10STL @ IND38–8RAMS
2009 · W7IND @ STL42–6IND
2005 · W6STL @ IND28–45IND
2001 · W16IND @ STL17–42RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–LA
LAQ1 15:00643Field goal0–3
INDQ1 12:4330Opp touchdown0–10
INDQ1 11:10973Field goal3–10
LAQ1 6:21733Punt3–10
INDQ1 2:03327Turnover3–10
LAQ1 0:363-1Punt3–10
INDQ2 14:02421Punt3–10
LAQ2 11:49569Touchdown3–17
INDQ2 9:373-11Punt3–17
LAQ2 7:29658Touchdown3–24
INDQ2 5:20535Turnover on downs3–24
LAQ2 3:08543Field goal3–27
INDQ2 0:1700End of half3–27
INDQ3 15:0039Punt3–27
INDQ3 13:2834Missed field goal3–27
LAQ3 12:03741Field goal3–30
INDQ3 7:2310Opp touchdown3–37
INDQ3 7:153-14Punt3–37
LAQ3 5:3037Punt3–37
INDQ3 4:1731Punt3–37
LAQ3 2:3766Punt3–37
INDQ4 14:13584Touchdown9–37
LAQ4 11:32415Punt9–39
INDQ4 9:291-10Safety9–39
LAQ4 9:18853Touchdown9–46
INDQ4 4:2837Punt9–46
LAQ4 2:54213End of half9–46

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Scott Tolzien9/1812802
Jacoby Brissett2/35100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore10424.20
Marlon Mack10242.41
Robert Turbin273.50
Scott Tolzien221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton37570
Donte Moncrief14500
Jack Doyle23410
Marlon Mack11210
Frank Gore11100
Kamar Aiken1230
Matt Hazel1110
Quan Bray0100
Robert Turbin11-40

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/2930610
Sean Mannion1/11200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley19402.11
Malcolm Brown7162.31
Tavon Austin2115.50
Jared Goff122.00
Justin Davis111.00
Sean Mannion3-7-2.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp46761
Sammy Watkins55580
Todd Gurley56560
Robert Woods35530
Gerald Everett11390
Tyler Higbee23170
Derek Carrier12120
Tavon Austin1170
Pharoh Cooper0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.36