Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.054
- 38.7%Success rate43.3%
- -0.102EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.050
- 6.7%Explosive rate11.4%
- -4.56CPOE-1.32
- 38.0%Third-down rate41.3%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.22Points / drive2.27
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. LA are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Tolzien | 9/18 | 128 | 0 | 2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2/3 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Hazel | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Quan Bray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/29 | 306 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 19 | 40 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 3 | -7 | -2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.36