Closing spread
IND -14
Total
45
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. STL are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/34 | 235 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 58 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Gijon Robinson | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Hank Baskett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.