2021 · Week 2

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

27·24

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

LA -4

Total

48

Model margin

+1.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapColts
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.060
  • 46.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.183EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.089EPA / rush+0.065
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.40CPOE-2.41
  • 42.6%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.35
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 6–2 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. IND are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4IND @ LA20–27RAMS
2023 · W4LA @ IND29–23RAMS
2017 · W1IND @ LA9–46RAMS
2013 · W10STL @ IND38–8RAMS
2009 · W7IND @ STL42–6IND
2005 · W6STL @ IND28–45IND
2001 · W16IND @ STL17–42RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–IND
INDQ1 15:001149Turnover on downs0–0
LAQ1 8:13890Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 3:18650Field goal7–3
LAQ2 14:5220Turnover7–3
INDQ2 14:37739Turnover7–3
LAQ2 10:091579Field goal10–3
INDQ2 1:51947Field goal10–6
LAQ3 15:00774Touchdown17–6
INDQ3 11:363-9Punt17–6
LAQ3 10:0332Punt17–6
INDQ3 9:211174Touchdown17–14
LAQ3 3:433-8Punt17–14
INDQ3 2:49516Punt17–14
LAQ3 0:2144Opp touchdown17–21
LAQ4 14:12470Touchdown24–21
INDQ4 12:09863Field goal24–24
LAQ4 7:221155Field goal27–24
INDQ4 2:2320Turnover27–24
LAQ4 2:1335Punt27–24
INDQ4 0:24325End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/3027821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson13534.11
Sony Michel10464.60
Robert Woods263.00
Matthew Stafford210.50
Cooper Kupp1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp9111632
Robert Woods59640
Darrell Henderson35290
Van Jefferson13140
Tyler Higbee1180

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz20/3124711
Jacob Eason2/52501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor15513.40
Carson Wentz5377.40
Marlon Mack5163.20
Nyheim Hines155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman8121230
Jack Doyle58640
Zach Pascal56381
Mo Alie-Cox12180
Nyheim Hines12170
Ashton Dulin12100
Jonathan Taylor1120
Marlon Mack0100
Mike Strachan0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.45