Closing spread
LA -4
Total
48
Model margin
+1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.060
- 46.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.089EPA / rush+0.065
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.40CPOE-2.41
- 42.6%Third-down rate41.9%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.32Points / drive2.35
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. IND are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/30 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 11 | 163 | 2 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 20/31 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob Eason | 2/5 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 12 | 123 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45