Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.149
- 46.6%Success rate52.2%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.235
- +0.052EPA / rush+0.021
- 8.1%Explosive rate11.3%
- +0.62CPOE+1.65
- 43.0%Third-down rate40.0%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.74Points / drive2.67
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. LA are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 24/33 | 262 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adonai Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 96 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 10 | 41 | 1 |
| Josh Downs | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/41 | 375 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 13 | 15 | 170 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 88 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.08