2025 · Week 4

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

20·27

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRams
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.149
  • 46.6%Success rate52.2%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.235
  • +0.052EPA / rush+0.021
  • 8.1%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +0.62CPOE+1.65
  • 43.0%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.74Points / drive2.67
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 6–2 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. LA are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4LA @ IND29–23RAMS
2021 · W2LA @ IND27–24RAMS
2017 · W1IND @ LA9–46RAMS
2013 · W10STL @ IND38–8RAMS
2009 · W7IND @ STL42–6IND
2005 · W6STL @ IND28–45IND
2001 · W16IND @ STL17–42RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–LA
INDQ1 15:00416Turnover0–0
LAQ1 12:471162Field goal0–3
INDQ1 7:32638Field goal3–3
LAQ1 4:55619Turnover on downs3–3
INDQ1 2:24945Touchdown10–3
LAQ2 12:171167Field goal10–6
INDQ2 5:21720Punt10–6
LAQ2 2:141296Touchdown10–13
INDQ2 0:0700End of half10–13
LAQ3 15:00415Punt10–13
INDQ3 12:33381Turnover10–13
LAQ3 11:32420Punt10–13
INDQ3 9:2931Punt10–13
LAQ3 7:503-2Punt10–13
INDQ3 6:183-2Punt10–13
LAQ3 4:4038Punt10–13
INDQ3 2:411190Touchdown17–13
LAQ4 11:341-10Turnover17–13
INDQ4 11:2247Field goal20–13
LAQ4 8:581490Touchdown20–20
INDQ4 3:20717Punt20–26
LAQ4 1:44188Touchdown20–27
INDQ4 1:33321Turnover20–27
LAQ4 0:53211End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones24/3326212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor17764.50
Ashton Dulin177.00
Tyler Warren231.51
Daniel Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adonai Mitchell34960
Tyler Warren56700
Michael Pittman510411
Josh Downs45240
Jonathan Taylor55200
Ashton Dulin11110
Tyler Goodson1100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford29/4137530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams13775.90
Blake Corum9212.30
Matthew Stafford441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua13151701
Tutu Atwell12881
Davante Adams46561
Tyler Higbee25250
Colby Parkinson22170
Kyren Williams34170
Jordan Whittington1170
Davis Allen1100
Blake Corum24-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.08