Closing spread
IND -13
Total
50.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 6–2 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 53.9 points. IND are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:04 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:00 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:17 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:42 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| IND | Q1 3:31 | 10 | 44 | Missed field goal | 17–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:14 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| IND | Q2 12:37 | 7 | 29 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:44 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 17–7 |
| IND | Q2 6:21 | 9 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LA | Q2 1:57 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| IND | Q2 0:30 | 3 | -5 | Turnover on downs | 20–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 65 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| LA | Q3 10:02 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| IND | Q3 6:04 | 7 | 35 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| LA | Q3 3:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–24 |
| IND | Q3 3:03 | 6 | 14 | Touchdown | 20–31 |
| LA | Q4 14:58 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 20–31 |
| IND | Q4 12:26 | 6 | 33 | Touchdown | 20–38 |
| LA | Q4 9:25 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–38 |
| IND | Q4 9:07 | 2 | 19 | Touchdown | 20–45 |
| LA | Q4 8:12 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 28–45 |
| IND | Q4 3:28 | 4 | 28 | End of half | 28–45 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/32 | 191 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 143 | 6.2 | 3 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.