Closing spread
DAL -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.085
- 39.4%Success rate39.6%
- -0.108EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.236EPA / rush-0.123
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- 37.2%Third-down rate36.8%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 0.93Points / drive1.23
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 13–7 since 1999
ARI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.7 points. DAL are 9-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:44 | 9 | 47 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:43 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DAL | Q1 3:41 | 1 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 3:33 | 3 | 31 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q1 1:52 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 13:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q2 12:38 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 12:02 | 10 | 27 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q2 8:00 | 13 | 75 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q2 2:12 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q2 1:08 | 2 | -4 | End of half | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| ARI | Q3 10:29 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q3 9:37 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 7–20 |
| ARI | Q3 7:59 | 4 | -4 | Safety | 7–22 |
| DAL | Q3 6:46 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–22 |
| ARI | Q3 4:53 | 3 | -1 | Safety | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q3 3:34 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q3 2:31 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q4 14:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q4 12:39 | 6 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q4 9:52 | 11 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q4 4:30 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q4 4:06 | 7 | 10 | End of half | 7–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 14/28 | 121 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| James Hodgins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 20/31 | 277 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 23 | 59 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamar Martin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.12