2003 · Week 5

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jeff Blake

7·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DAL -7.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.154EPA / play-0.085
  • 39.4%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.108EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.236EPA / rush-0.123
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • 37.2%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.23
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.125

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake14/2812112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcel Shipp9313.40
James Hodgins133.00
Jeff Blake122.00
Emmitt Smith6-1-0.20
Damien Anderson1-3-3.00

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter20/3127721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Hambrick23592.60
Joey Galloway177.00
Quincy Carter362.00
Terry Glenn144.00
Jamar Martin133.00
Aveion Cason2-4-2.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.12