2003 · Week 8

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

29·17

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapVikings
  • -0.123EPA / play+0.079
  • 41.7%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.044
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 32.9%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.96
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.008

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIN
MINQ1 15:00740Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 10:12676Touchdown7–3
MINQ1 7:19618Punt7–3
NYGQ1 3:311382Turnover7–3
MINQ2 11:37849Missed field goal7–3
NYGQ2 6:43654Field goal10–3
MINQ2 3:31479Touchdown10–10
NYGQ2 1:531062Field goal13–10
MINQ2 0:041-1End of half13–10
NYGQ3 15:00453Field goal16–10
MINQ3 13:1454Punt16–10
NYGQ3 11:1944Punt16–10
MINQ3 9:31747Touchdown16–17
NYGQ3 6:22511Punt16–17
MINQ3 4:151040Punt16–17
NYGQ4 14:0285Punt16–17
MINQ4 10:59544Punt16–17
NYGQ4 8:27878Touchdown22–17
MINQ4 5:2910Turnover22–17
NYGQ4 5:15317Touchdown29–17
MINQ4 3:39615Turnover on downs29–17
NYGQ4 2:3968Turnover on downs29–17
MINQ4 0:24424Turnover29–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins23/3937521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber20753.81
Dorsey Levens571.40
Kerry Collins310.30

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper18/3124122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Moe Williams11696.30
Daunte Culpepper5489.60
Onterrio Smith11322.90
Randy Moss1-12-12.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.09