Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play+0.079
- 41.7%Success rate45.9%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.044
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.7%
- 32.9%Third-down rate46.9%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 0.93Points / drive1.96
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 23/39 | 375 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 18/31 | 241 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.09