Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
39
Model margin
-0.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.049EPA / play-0.154
- 43.9%Success rate39.4%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.108
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.236
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.0%
- 44.6%Third-down rate37.2%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.83Points / drive0.93
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.077EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. ARI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:22 | 9 | 42 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 8:24 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:05 | 2 | 28 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 5:19 | 10 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 1:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q2 14:36 | 3 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 13:39 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CIN | Q2 10:21 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ARI | Q2 8:05 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q2 4:14 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q2 2:14 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q2 1:39 | 4 | 28 | End of half | 14–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q3 8:12 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q3 7:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q3 5:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q3 3:29 | 10 | 54 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q4 12:31 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 9:05 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q4 3:49 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 1:49 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q4 1:23 | 6 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 21/38 | 218 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/28 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 29 | 141 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.07