2025 · Week 17

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

14·37

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

52.5

Model margin

+8.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBengals
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.012
  • 43.0%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.142EPA / rush+0.012
  • 6.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.10CPOE+1.28
  • 41.6%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.93
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. CIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5CIN @ ARI34–20CIN
2019 · W5ARI @ CIN26–23ARI
2015 · W11CIN @ ARI31–34ARI
2011 · W16ARI @ CIN16–23CIN
2007 · W11ARI @ CIN35–27ARI
2003 · W9CIN @ ARI14–17ARI
2000 · W14ARI @ CIN13–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CIN
CINQ1 15:001272Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 9:1736Punt0–7
CINQ1 7:481568Touchdown0–13
ARIQ2 14:58665Touchdown7–13
CINQ2 11:443-5Punt7–13
ARIQ2 10:1432Punt7–13
CINQ2 9:09960Field goal7–16
ARIQ2 3:2132Punt7–16
CINQ2 2:21336Touchdown7–23
ARIQ2 1:15616Punt7–23
CINQ2 0:1400End of half7–23
ARIQ3 15:003-3Punt7–23
CINQ3 13:571179Touchdown7–30
ARIQ3 7:3331Punt7–30
CINQ3 6:231082Touchdown7–37
ARIQ3 1:381452Turnover on downs7–37
CINQ4 12:061041Punt7–37
ARIQ4 6:201692Touchdown14–37
CINQ4 1:5000End of half14–37

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/3721220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter7294.10
Emari Demercado5112.20
Corey Kiner122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson510891
Trey McBride1013761
Xavier Weaver23240
Michael Carter24140
Emari Demercado2390
Elijah Higgins0100
Marvin Harrison Jr.0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow24/3130520
Joe Flacco3/52400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown221014.62
Tahj Brooks3103.30
Samaje Perine351.71
Joe Flacco420.50
Joe Burrow320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase79602
Tee Higgins45590
Mike Gesicki22470
Andrei Iosivas46410
Chase Brown33400
Tanner Hudson22310
Tahj Brooks1190
Samaje Perine1180
Drew Sample1180
Ke'Shawn Williams1150
Noah Fant0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +72.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.9%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.47