Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
52.5
Model margin
+8.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.012
- 43.0%Success rate46.4%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.142EPA / rush+0.012
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.10CPOE+1.28
- 41.6%Third-down rate44.3%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. CIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/37 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Corey Kiner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 10 | 13 | 76 | 1 |
| Xavier Weaver | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/31 | 305 | 2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3/5 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 22 | 101 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Tahj Brooks | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 9 | 60 | 2 |
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.47