Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play-0.055
- 44.4%Success rate41.0%
- +0.050EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.014
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.09CPOE-2.77
- 38.3%Third-down rate39.6%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.91Points / drive1.88
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. ARI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 36/46 | 317 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 25 | 81 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 15 | 19 | 192 | 3 |
| Trenton Irwin | 8 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kwamie Lassiter II | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 15/32 | 166 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 |
| James Conner | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 10 | 61 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.37