2023 · Week 5

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

34·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Joshua Dobbs

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

-2.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.001EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.4%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.014
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.09CPOE-2.77
  • 38.3%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.88
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. ARI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17ARI @ CIN14–37CIN
2019 · W5ARI @ CIN26–23ARI
2015 · W11CIN @ ARI31–34ARI
2011 · W16ARI @ CIN16–23CIN
2007 · W11ARI @ CIN35–27ARI
2003 · W9CIN @ ARI14–17ARI
2000 · W14ARI @ CIN13–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–ARI
ARIQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:191164Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 7:0933Punt7–0
CINQ1 5:51726Field goal10–0
ARIQ1 1:46975Touchdown10–7
CINQ2 12:253-4Punt10–7
ARIQ2 10:41549Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 8:2833Punt10–14
ARIQ2 7:2530Punt10–14
CINQ2 7:001370Turnover on downs10–14
ARIQ2 1:3320Opp touchdown17–14
ARIQ2 1:2336Punt17–14
CINQ2 1:00411Turnover on downs17–14
CINQ3 15:00375Touchdown24–14
ARIQ3 13:391175Touchdown24–20
CINQ3 7:33830Turnover24–20
ARIQ3 3:46549Turnover on downs24–20
CINQ3 1:431782Touchdown31–20
ARIQ4 7:4810Turnover31–20
CINQ4 7:41516Field goal34–20
ARIQ4 6:3348Turnover34–20
CINQ4 4:5633Punt34–20
ARIQ4 3:16730Turnover on downs34–20
CINQ4 2:1045Turnover on downs34–20
ARIQ4 0:2012End of half34–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow36/4631731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon25813.20
Joe Burrow471.80
Trayveon Williams155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase15191923
Trenton Irwin810600
Tyler Boyd67390
Joe Mixon44130
Andrei Iosivas1290
Kwamie Lassiter II1120
Chase Brown1120

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs15/3216622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rondale Moore35016.70
James Conner6467.70
Emari Demercado10454.51
Joshua Dobbs310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown410611
Rondale Moore35260
Geoff Swaim22220
Michael Wilson12180
Trey McBride23170
Emari Demercado13120
Zach Ertz24101
Zach Pascal0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.7%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.37