Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play+0.024
- 42.9%Success rate46.0%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.091
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.38CPOE+5.31
- 36.9%Third-down rate45.6%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.68Points / drive1.86
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. CIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:37 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 10:14 | 11 | 34 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 3:57 | 2 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 3:12 | 13 | 49 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q2 12:47 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q2 10:58 | 12 | 65 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| ARI | Q2 4:28 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| CIN | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–13 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| ARI | Q3 14:40 | 4 | 20 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| CIN | Q3 12:59 | 9 | 54 | Turnover | 28–13 |
| ARI | Q3 8:35 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 28–13 |
| CIN | Q3 6:33 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 28–20 |
| ARI | Q3 5:02 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 28–27 |
| ARI | Q3 3:29 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 28–27 |
| CIN | Q3 1:50 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 35–27 |
| CIN | Q3 0:25 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 35–27 |
| ARI | Q4 11:51 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 35–27 |
| CIN | Q4 10:18 | 6 | 11 | Turnover on downs | 35–27 |
| ARI | Q4 8:55 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 35–27 |
| CIN | Q4 6:09 | 10 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 35–27 |
| ARI | Q4 2:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 35–27 |
| CIN | Q4 1:56 | 6 | 32 | Turnover | 35–27 |
| ARI | Q4 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 16/28 | 211 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 52 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 37/52 | 329 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76