2015 · Week 11

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

31·34

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -4

Total

48

Model margin

+2.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.133
  • 45.3%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback+0.260
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.059
  • 10.2%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +4.53CPOE+4.51
  • 39.6%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 68.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. ARI are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17ARI @ CIN14–37CIN
2023 · W5CIN @ ARI34–20CIN
2019 · W5ARI @ CIN26–23ARI
2011 · W16ARI @ CIN16–23CIN
2007 · W11ARI @ CIN35–27ARI
2003 · W9CIN @ ARI14–17ARI
2000 · W14ARI @ CIN13–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00824Turnover0–0
CINQ1 10:45617Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:5939Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:4238Punt0–0
ARIQ1 3:4610Turnover0–0
CINQ1 3:30774Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 0:221064Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 9:441795Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 1:0735Punt14–7
CINQ2 0:3611End of half14–7
CINQ3 15:0067Punt14–7
ARIQ3 13:02480Touchdown14–14
CINQ3 11:2132Punt14–14
ARIQ3 10:17866Touchdown14–21
CINQ3 5:323-9Punt14–21
ARIQ3 4:09659Touchdown14–28
CINQ3 1:261185Touchdown21–28
ARIQ4 11:2667Punt21–28
CINQ4 9:013-7Turnover21–28
ARIQ4 8:4134Field goal21–31
CINQ4 6:27850Touchdown28–31
ARIQ4 3:4439Punt28–31
CINQ4 2:45854Field goal31–31
ARIQ4 1:03357Field goal31–34
CINQ4 0:0200End of half31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3931520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill13453.52
Andy Dalton8344.30
Giovani Bernard6183.00
Mohamed Sanu122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Giovani Bernard8101280
A.J. Green412790
Marvin Jones49600
Tyler Eifert33222
Mohamed Sanu23190
Rex Burkhead1170
Tyler Kroft0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3131742

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson18633.50
John Brown294.50
David Johnson294.50
Andre Ellington221.00
Carson Palmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.J. Nelson461421
Larry Fitzgerald813900
John Brown33431
Darren Fells12181
David Johnson22171
Andre Ellington1250
Chris Johnson1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.75