Closing spread
ARI -4
Total
48
Model margin
+2.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.133
- 45.3%Success rate47.7%
- +0.229EPA / dropback+0.260
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.059
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.8%
- +4.53CPOE+4.51
- 39.6%Third-down rate47.4%
- 68.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.11Points / drive2.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. ARI are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/39 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 10 | 128 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 3 | 22 | 2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/31 | 317 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 4 | 6 | 142 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 13 | 90 | 0 |
| John Brown | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.75