Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.030
- 41.4%Success rate41.7%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- -5.82CPOE-2.19
- 32.0%Third-down rate35.5%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.38Points / drive1.55
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. CIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 23/44 | 297 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 11 | 105 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 6 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/31 | 154 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.87