2011 · Week 16

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

16·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+2.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBengals
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.030
  • 41.4%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.080
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -5.82CPOE-2.19
  • 32.0%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.55
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. CIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17ARI @ CIN14–37CIN
2023 · W5CIN @ ARI34–20CIN
2019 · W5ARI @ CIN26–23ARI
2015 · W11CIN @ ARI31–34ARI
2007 · W11ARI @ CIN35–27ARI
2003 · W9CIN @ ARI14–17ARI
2000 · W14ARI @ CIN13–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CIN
ARIQ1 15:0048Turnover0–0
CINQ1 12:54417Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 10:553-4Punt0–3
CINQ1 8:59628Touchdown0–10
ARIQ1 6:24528Punt0–10
CINQ1 3:161066Missed field goal0–10
ARIQ2 12:50313Punt0–10
CINQ2 10:48724Missed field goal0–10
ARIQ2 7:37610Turnover0–10
CINQ2 6:36858Touchdown0–17
ARIQ2 2:4631Punt0–17
CINQ2 1:47625Field goal0–20
CINQ3 15:00425Punt0–20
ARIQ3 12:53523Turnover0–20
CINQ3 10:2433Punt0–20
ARIQ3 8:523-1Punt0–20
CINQ3 7:00918Field goal0–23
ARIQ3 3:09630Punt0–23
CINQ3 0:2937Punt0–23
ARIQ4 14:17961Touchdown7–23
CINQ4 11:25413Turnover7–23
ARIQ4 9:19439Touchdown13–23
CINQ4 7:3936Punt13–23
ARIQ4 6:12758Field goal16–23
CINQ4 3:1612Turnover16–23
ARIQ4 3:0445Turnover on downs16–23
CINQ4 1:1239Punt16–23
ARIQ4 0:48445End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton23/4429723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells14533.80
John Skelton461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald6111051
Andre Roberts610750
Early Doucet26470
Todd Heap25290
Chester Taylor23190
Rob Housler12110
Chris Wells1180
Jeff King1121
LaRod Stephens-Howling1120
Chansi Stuckey0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/3115420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson16573.60
Andy Dalton5489.60
Bernard Scott10282.80
A.J. Green22512.50
Cedric Peerman177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Gresham57561
Jerome Simpson56421
A.J. Green28250
Ryan Whalen33200
Cedric Benson1280
Andrew Hawkins1230
Donald Lee1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.87