Closing spread
CIN -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.126EPA / play-0.157
- 39.0%Success rate34.1%
- -0.066EPA / dropback-0.180
- -0.243EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- 36.7%Third-down rate34.8%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
- 1.04Points / drive0.82
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.104EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. CIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:38 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 10:46 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 7:25 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 3:26 | 7 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 1:08 | 16 | 47 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 9:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 9:12 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 8:26 | 6 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 5:53 | 14 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q2 0:46 | 5 | 19 | End of half | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| ARI | Q3 11:34 | 6 | 51 | Missed field goal | 0–21 |
| CIN | Q3 8:03 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 0–21 |
| ARI | Q3 5:27 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| CIN | Q3 4:08 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 7–21 |
| CIN | Q3 2:38 | 3 | 6 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| ARI | Q3 1:15 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| CIN | Q4 13:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–21 |
| ARI | Q4 12:34 | 10 | 31 | Turnover | 13–21 |
| CIN | Q4 8:27 | 16 | 69 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| ARI | Q4 1:02 | 6 | 24 | End of half | 13–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 22/44 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 19 | 72 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 9 | 15 | 184 | 2 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 11 | 21 | 0 |
| Clarence Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Gedney | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mitchell | 11/23 | 109 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 35 | 216 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.28
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.06