2019 · Week 5

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

26·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

45

Model margin

+0.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBengals
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.097
  • 42.7%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback-0.076
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.137
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.81CPOE-5.27
  • 36.0%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. CIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17ARI @ CIN14–37CIN
2023 · W5CIN @ ARI34–20CIN
2015 · W11CIN @ ARI31–34ARI
2011 · W16ARI @ CIN16–23CIN
2007 · W11ARI @ CIN35–27ARI
2003 · W9CIN @ ARI14–17ARI
2000 · W14ARI @ CIN13–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CIN
ARIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CINQ1 14:071165Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 8:281063Touchdown7–3
CINQ1 3:4033Punt7–3
ARIQ1 2:16960Missed field goal7–3
CINQ2 12:56617Punt7–3
ARIQ2 10:101165Field goal10–3
CINQ2 5:0945Field goal10–6
ARIQ2 3:271181Field goal13–6
CINQ3 15:001570Field goal13–9
ARIQ3 8:34739Punt13–9
CINQ3 4:47826Turnover on downs13–9
ARIQ3 1:37748Field goal16–9
CINQ4 13:25524Punt16–9
ARIQ4 10:21788Touchdown23–9
CINQ4 7:131079Touchdown23–16
ARIQ4 4:0835Punt23–16
CINQ4 3:41481Touchdown23–23
ARIQ4 2:00562Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray20/3225300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray10939.31
David Johnson17915.40
Chase Edmonds8688.51
Andy Isabella2115.50
KeeSean Johnson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Johnson35650
Larry Fitzgerald68580
Pharoh Cooper22330
Charles Clay11270
Trent Sherfield13230
KeeSean Johnson37220
Chase Edmonds34180
Maxx Williams1170

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton27/3826220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon19934.90
Giovani Bernard2105.00
Andy Dalton252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd10141231
Damion Willis44380
Auden Tate36261
Giovani Bernard33160
C.J. Uzomah22160
Joe Mixon11160
Tyler Eifert24140
Alex Erickson1170
Stanley Morgan1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.86