Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
45
Model margin
+0.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.097
- 42.7%Success rate40.3%
- +0.020EPA / dropback-0.076
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.137
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.81CPOE-5.27
- 36.0%Third-down rate36.0%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.85Points / drive1.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.5 points. CIN are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/32 | 253 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 10 | 93 | 9.3 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Andy Isabella | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 3 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 27/38 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 10 | 14 | 123 | 1 |
| Damion Willis | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 3 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.86