2003 · Week 12
Final
Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
MIA -7
Total
35
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play-0.093
- 40.4%Success rate39.3%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- 34.4%Third-down rate33.0%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.45Points / drive1.45
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. MIA are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hasselbeck | 15/30 | 150 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1/4 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trung Canidate | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 8/13 | 133 | 1 | 2 |
| Jay Fiedler | 5/10 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Travis Minor | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64