2019 · Week 6
Final
Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
42
Model margin
-0.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.076
- 38.8%Success rate41.5%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.268
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- -2.94CPOE-2.66
- 29.0%Third-down rate35.1%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.49Points / drive1.62
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. MIA are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 13/25 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 100 | 2 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 12/18 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 15/25 | 85 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.11
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.26