2019 · Week 6

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Case Keenum

17·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Josh Rosen

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

42

Model margin

-0.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.076
  • 38.8%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.268
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -2.94CPOE-2.66
  • 29.0%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.62
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. MIA are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11WAS @ MIA13–16MIA
2023 · W13MIA @ WAS45–15MIA
2015 · W1MIA @ WAS17–10MIA
2011 · W10WAS @ MIA9–20MIA
2007 · W1MIA @ WAS13–16WAS
2003 · W12WAS @ MIA23–24MIA
1999 · W17MIA @ WAS10–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–MIA
WASQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:495-1Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:1238Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:093-6Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:3933Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:111128Punt0–0
WASQ1 0:14893Touchdown7–0
MIAQ2 11:34939Turnover7–0
WASQ2 7:4737Punt7–0
MIAQ2 6:131144Field goal7–3
WASQ2 1:07518End of half7–3
MIAQ3 15:0039Punt7–3
WASQ3 13:14755Touchdown14–3
MIAQ3 9:4244Turnover14–3
WASQ3 8:17733Field goal17–3
MIAQ3 4:153-1Punt17–3
WASQ3 3:11627Missed field goal17–3
MIAQ4 14:551053Touchdown17–10
WASQ4 10:5634Punt17–10
MIAQ4 9:48426Punt17–10
WASQ4 7:5137Punt17–10
MIAQ4 6:1631Punt17–10
WASQ4 4:41748Punt17–10
MIAQ4 2:02875Touchdown17–16
WASQ4 0:0600End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum13/2516620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson231185.10
Chris Thompson3124.00
Case Keenum4102.50
Wendell Smallwood144.00
Steven Sims111.00
Paul Richardson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin471002
Jeremy Sprinkle23240
Adrian Peterson22180
Chris Thompson2380
Trey Quinn2480
Kelvin Harmon1180
Paul Richardson0400

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick12/1813210
Josh Rosen15/258502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake10404.00
Mark Walton6325.30
Kalen Ballage372.31
Ryan Fitzpatrick252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki37510
Mark Walton56430
Preston Williams26310
Kenyan Drake69300
DeVante Parker34281
Allen Hurns22160
Albert Wilson56150
Nick O'Leary1130
Isaiah Ford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.11
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.26