2015 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

17·10

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.032EPA / play+0.022
  • 40.5%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.191
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.20CPOE+5.62
  • 31.0%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.81
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. WAS are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11WAS @ MIA13–16MIA
2023 · W13MIA @ WAS45–15MIA
2019 · W6WAS @ MIA17–16WAS
2011 · W10WAS @ MIA9–20MIA
2007 · W1MIA @ WAS13–16WAS
2003 · W12WAS @ MIA23–24MIA
1999 · W17MIA @ WAS10–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–WAS
WASQ1 15:001254Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 7:3939Punt0–3
WASQ1 5:491045Missed field goal0–3
MIAQ1 0:27614Punt0–3
WASQ2 13:4642Turnover0–3
MIAQ2 12:0949Turnover on downs0–3
WASQ2 10:381798Touchdown0–10
MIAQ2 1:49965Touchdown7–10
WASQ2 0:2700End of half7–10
MIAQ3 15:00713Turnover7–10
WASQ3 12:193-2Punt7–10
MIAQ3 10:14523Punt7–10
WASQ3 7:18954Punt7–10
MIAQ3 1:471078Field goal10–10
WASQ4 11:34411Opp touchdown17–10
WASQ4 10:22739Turnover17–10
MIAQ4 7:35620Punt17–10
WASQ4 5:00949Turnover on downs17–10
MIAQ4 2:17526End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/3422610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller13534.10
Jarvis Landry11414.00
Ryan Tannehill372.30
Damien Williams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron47730
Jarvis Landry812530
Rishard Matthews46341
Greg Jennings33290
Lamar Miller11220
Kenny Stills13120
Damien Williams1130
Dion Sims0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3119612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris251214.80
Matt Jones6284.70
Chris Thompson3113.70
Jamison Crowder122.00
Kirk Cousins2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon68740
Jordan Reed711631
Andre Roberts34360
Ryan Grant12150
Derek Carrier2280
DeSean Jackson0100
Chris Thompson0100
Jamison Crowder1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.63