2015 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.022
- 40.5%Success rate42.6%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.191
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.20CPOE+5.62
- 31.0%Third-down rate43.9%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.42Points / drive1.81
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. WAS are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/34 | 226 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 4 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 12 | 53 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/31 | 196 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 25 | 121 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 7 | 11 | 63 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63