1999 · Week 17

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Dan Marino

10·21

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

44

Model margin

+5.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.098
  • 37.3%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.186EPA / rush+0.036
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 34.2%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.78
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. WAS are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11WAS @ MIA13–16MIA
2023 · W13MIA @ WAS45–15MIA
2019 · W6WAS @ MIA17–16WAS
2015 · W1MIA @ WAS17–10MIA
2011 · W10WAS @ MIA9–20MIA
2007 · W1MIA @ WAS13–16WAS
2003 · W12WAS @ MIA23–24MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–WAS
MIAQ1 15:00737Turnover0–0
WASQ1 11:1730Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:16950Turnover0–0
WASQ1 4:36634Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 1:3337Punt0–0
WASQ1 0:121056Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ2 9:58614Punt0–0
WASQ2 6:55538Touchdown0–7
MIAQ2 4:51552Field goal3–7
WASQ2 2:2938Punt3–7
MIAQ2 1:18933End of half3–7
WASQ3 15:00267Touchdown3–14
MIAQ3 14:06625Punt3–14
WASQ3 11:0133Punt3–14
MIAQ3 9:11529Turnover3–14
WASQ3 7:09511Punt3–14
MIAQ3 5:101030Punt3–14
WASQ4 14:48414Punt3–14
MIAQ4 13:21512Turnover on downs3–14
WASQ4 10:56935Touchdown3–21
MIAQ4 6:251585Touchdown10–21
WASQ4 3:0936Punt10–21
MIAQ4 1:44315Turnover10–21
WASQ4 0:532-2End of half10–21

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Damon Huard18/2916211
Dan Marino11/2411801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Autry Denson21803.80
Damon Huard22211.00
Stanley Pritchett2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden9131141
Stanley Pritchett34320
Autry Denson34260
Kevin McKenzie23180
Yatil Green110130
Hunter Goodwin1290
Nate Jacquet0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete6/99920
Brad Johnson7/117500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Skip Hicks22532.41
James Thrash13737.00
Brian Mitchell4164.00
Casey Weldon2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stephen Alexander24380
Irving Fryar12301
Brian Mitchell11290
Michael Westbrook35250
James Thrash13170
Skip Hicks11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.26