1999 · Week 17
Final
Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
44
Model margin
+5.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.098
- 37.3%Success rate44.4%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.186EPA / rush+0.036
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.8%
- 34.2%Third-down rate36.2%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.17Points / drive1.78
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. WAS are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 18/29 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
| Dan Marino | 11/24 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autry Denson | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 9 | 13 | 114 | 1 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Kevin McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Yatil Green | 1 | 10 | 13 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Nate Jacquet | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 6/9 | 99 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 7/11 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skip Hicks | 22 | 53 | 2.4 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Casey Weldon | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Irving Fryar | 1 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.26