2023 · Week 13

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

45·15

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

MIA -8.5

Total

50

Model margin

-1.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.095EPA / play-0.084
  • 47.3%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.119
  • 11.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.40CPOE+0.32
  • 42.5%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.53
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. WAS are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11WAS @ MIA13–16MIA
2019 · W6WAS @ MIA17–16WAS
2015 · W1MIA @ WAS17–10MIA
2011 · W10WAS @ MIA9–20MIA
2007 · W1MIA @ WAS13–16WAS
2003 · W12WAS @ MIA23–24MIA
1999 · W17MIA @ WAS10–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–WAS
WASQ1 15:00830Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:56386Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 9:283-4Punt7–0
MIAQ1 7:54739Field goal10–0
WASQ1 3:3937Punt10–0
MIAQ1 2:123-13Punt16–0
WASQ1 1:0110Opp touchdown17–0
WASQ1 0:551075Touchdown17–7
MIAQ2 11:18575Touchdown24–7
WASQ2 9:14619Punt24–7
MIAQ2 5:551260Touchdown31–7
WASQ2 0:2023End of half31–7
MIAQ3 15:00975Touchdown38–7
WASQ3 9:36975Touchdown38–15
MIAQ3 4:3148Punt38–15
WASQ3 2:54624Missed field goal38–15
MIAQ4 14:15517Punt38–15
WASQ4 11:2337Punt38–15
MIAQ4 9:471359Touchdown45–15
WASQ4 1:5739End of half45–15

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa18/2428020
Mike White1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane17734.32
Raheem Mostert11433.91
Jeff Wilson4112.80
Tyreek Hill2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill571572
Jaylen Waddle58520
De'Von Achane34300
Julian Hill22230
River Cracraft22160
Raheem Mostert1180

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell12/2312701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson7537.60
Antonio Gibson10353.50
Chris Rodriguez Jr.7294.10
Sam Howell4215.32

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel45650
Antonio Gibson45370
Jahan Dotson25230
Cole Turner1120
Logan Thomas0100
Terry McLaurin0300
Dyami Brown1100
John Bates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.67