2023 · Week 13
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
MIA -8.5
Total
50
Model margin
-1.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play-0.084
- 47.3%Success rate41.9%
- +0.167EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.119
- 11.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.40CPOE+0.32
- 42.5%Third-down rate35.6%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.34Points / drive1.53
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. WAS are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 18/24 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike White | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 157 | 2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 12/23 | 127 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.67