2007 · Week 1
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
34
Model margin
+4.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play-0.040
- 40.4%Success rate41.8%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.199
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.12CPOE+2.48
- 37.0%Third-down rate41.1%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.36Points / drive1.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. WAS are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:59 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:30 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 9:58 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:22 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 3:56 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 12:14 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q2 9:58 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 7:50 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q2 5:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 4:23 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q3 11:47 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q3 10:16 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q3 8:13 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q3 3:37 | 8 | 45 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q4 14:48 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q4 11:43 | 8 | 39 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q4 5:30 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| WAS | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–13 |
| MIA | Q4 1:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–13 |
| WAS | Q4 0:12 | 2 | 67 | End of half | 13–13 |
| WAS | OT | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 24/38 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jesse Chatman | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 12/21 | 222 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 98 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.65