2007 · Week 1

Final / OT

Dolphins

Miami

QB Trent Green

13·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

34

Model margin

+4.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.078EPA / play-0.040
  • 40.4%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.084EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.199
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.12CPOE+2.48
  • 37.0%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. WAS are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11WAS @ MIA13–16MIA
2023 · W13MIA @ WAS45–15MIA
2019 · W6WAS @ MIA17–16WAS
2015 · W1MIA @ WAS17–10MIA
2011 · W10WAS @ MIA9–20MIA
2003 · W12WAS @ MIA23–24MIA
1999 · W17MIA @ WAS10–21WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green24/3821910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown11322.90
Jesse Chatman7152.10
Marty Booker11212.00
Ted Ginn177.00

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell12/2122202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis17985.81
Ladell Betts17593.50
Jason Campbell4297.30
Mike Sellers284.00
Antwaan Randle El1-3-3.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.65