2025 · Week 11
Final / OT
Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.021
- 46.4%Success rate42.1%
- +0.084EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.67CPOE+1.82
- 37.2%Third-down rate34.1%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.03Points / drive1.92
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. MIA are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/30 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Colson Yankoff | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14/20 | 171 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 21 | 120 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.31