2025 · Week 11

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

13·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.021
  • 46.4%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.67CPOE+1.82
  • 37.2%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.92
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. MIA are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13MIA @ WAS45–15MIA
2019 · W6WAS @ MIA17–16WAS
2015 · W1MIA @ WAS17–10MIA
2011 · W10WAS @ MIA9–20MIA
2007 · W1MIA @ WAS13–16WAS
2003 · W12WAS @ MIA23–24MIA
1999 · W17MIA @ WAS10–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00657Field goal0–3
WASQ1 10:351357Field goal3–3
MIAQ1 2:361156Field goal3–6
WASQ2 11:27839Missed field goal3–6
MIAQ2 7:313-7Punt3–6
WASQ2 5:371577Field goal6–6
WASQ3 15:00659Touchdown13–6
MIAQ3 11:24958Turnover on downs13–6
WASQ3 6:06619Punt13–6
MIAQ3 2:491053Touchdown13–13
WASQ4 12:361169Turnover on downs13–13
MIAQ4 6:03411Punt13–13
MIAQ4 4:11839Turnover on downs13–13
WASQ4 1:41759Missed field goal13–13
MIAQ4 0:10222End of half13–13
WASOT10Turnover13–13
MIAOT322Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota20/3021311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.15795.30
Marcus Mariota44912.30
Jacory Croskey-Merritt9283.10
Jeremy McNichols4133.30
Deebo Samuel Sr.133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.78741
Zach Ertz48420
Chris Moore25280
Jacoby Jones11250
Jeremy McNichols22160
Jaylin Lane11130
Chris Rodriguez Jr.1160
Jacory Croskey-Merritt1150
Colson Yankoff1140
Robbie Chosen0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa14/2017100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane211205.70
Ollie Gordon II9455.01
Jaylen Wright144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle37520
De'Von Achane55450
Malik Washington33420
Greg Dulcich24180
Julian Hill11140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.31