2011 · Week 10

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

9·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.033
  • 41.9%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.048EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.116
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -1.12CPOE+2.28
  • 36.9%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 47.2%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.63
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. MIA are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11WAS @ MIA13–16MIA
2023 · W13MIA @ WAS45–15MIA
2019 · W6WAS @ MIA17–16WAS
2015 · W1MIA @ WAS17–10MIA
2007 · W1MIA @ WAS13–16WAS
2003 · W12WAS @ MIA23–24MIA
1999 · W17MIA @ WAS10–21WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–MIA
WASQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:08942Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 8:20533Missed field goal0–7
MIAQ1 5:104-11Turnover0–7
WASQ1 2:5846Field goal3–7
MIAQ1 0:491373Field goal3–10
WASQ2 10:27839Turnover3–10
MIAQ2 6:17616Missed field goal3–10
WASQ2 3:25527Field goal6–10
MIAQ2 1:0723End of half6–10
MIAQ3 15:002-2Turnover6–10
WASQ3 14:13729Field goal9–10
MIAQ3 10:381070Field goal9–13
WASQ3 4:59516Punt9–13
MIAQ3 3:1935Punt9–13
WASQ3 1:00849Turnover9–13
MIAQ4 11:571081Touchdown9–20
WASQ4 6:07931Missed field goal9–20
MIAQ4 2:51826Turnover on downs9–20
WASQ4 0:14121End of half9–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman21/3221502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roy Helu6416.80
Ryan Torain10202.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonard Hankerson891060
Jabar Gaffney36370
Fred Davis37280
Logan Paulsen11160
David Anderson13140
Roy Helu33130
Ryan Torain1140
Terrence Austin0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore20/2920901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush14473.42
Daniel Thomas17422.50
Matt Moore2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall79980
Anthony Fasano34600
Davone Bess46370
Brian Hartline1360
Reggie Bush4540
Charles Clay1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.97