2011 · Week 10
Final
Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 19mph
Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.033
- 41.9%Success rate39.0%
- -0.048EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.5%
- -1.12CPOE+2.28
- 36.9%Third-down rate33.1%
- 47.2%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
- 1.48Points / drive1.63
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.6 points. MIA are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 21/32 | 215 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Hankerson | 8 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 20/29 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Daniel Thomas | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.97