2004 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Bengals produced the widest margin at 28 points; the tightest finish was Falcons at Seahawks, decided by 2.
Briefing7
Dolphins start Sage Rosenfels rather than A.J. Feeley, which the model treats as worth about 2.8 points against them.
Steelers start Tommy Maddox rather than Ben Roethlisberger, which the model treats as worth about 16.7 points against them.
Browns start Kelly Holcomb rather than Jeff Garcia, which the model treats as worth about 6.5 points for them.
49ers start Ken Dorsey rather than Tim Rattay, which the model treats as worth about 5.2 points against them.
Colts lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.239, 0.065 clear of second.
Ravens have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.136 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Dolphins at Ravens, where it rates Dolphins about 9.9 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
