Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. STL are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:59 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:23 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 6:10 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:01 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TEN | Q1 1:01 | 7 | 53 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 12:28 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:06 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q2 7:55 | 7 | 33 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:18 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| TEN | Q2 2:08 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:39 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–17 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LA | Q3 12:57 | 6 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| TEN | Q3 9:30 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LA | Q3 7:07 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| TEN | Q3 6:52 | 6 | 33 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LA | Q3 3:22 | 2 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 24–24 |
| LA | Q3 2:37 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| TEN | Q4 14:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–31 |
| LA | Q4 12:51 | 4 | 36 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| TEN | Q4 10:26 | 8 | 13 | Field goal | 27–31 |
| LA | Q4 6:02 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 27–31 |
| TEN | Q4 2:19 | 9 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 27–31 |
| LA | Q4 0:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 24/39 | 261 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.