Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. STL are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 24/39 | 261 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.