Closing spread
STL -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/29 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.