Closing spread
STL -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:28 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 5:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:46 | 4 | -1 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| TEN | Q1 2:49 | 1 | 17 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 2:41 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q1 1:48 | 2 | 26 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LA | Q1 1:24 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q2 14:17 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 12:27 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q2 10:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 8:38 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q2 7:50 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 6:48 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q2 2:22 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 1:07 | 4 | 19 | Missed field goal | 0–21 |
| TEN | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–21 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| TEN | Q3 14:33 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LA | Q3 10:25 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| TEN | Q3 7:55 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| LA | Q3 4:18 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 14–24 |
| TEN | Q3 1:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LA | Q4 14:32 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| TEN | Q4 13:11 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LA | Q4 12:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–24 |
| TEN | Q4 11:11 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LA | Q4 7:15 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| TEN | Q4 2:14 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 21–24 |
| LA | Q4 2:14 | 9 | 48 | Missed field goal | 21–24 |
| TEN | Q4 0:07 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/29 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.