Closing spread
LA -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-4.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.148
- 52.2%Success rate37.9%
- +0.235EPA / dropback-0.165
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.117
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- +1.65CPOE-3.50
- 40.0%Third-down rate32.0%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.67Points / drive1.36
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/33 | 298 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 45 | 45.0 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 13 | 106 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 8 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 19/33 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.63