2025 · Week 2

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

33·19

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LA -5.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-4.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapTitans
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.148
  • 52.2%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback-0.165
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.117
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +1.65CPOE-3.50
  • 40.0%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.36
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W9TEN @ LA28–16TEN
2017 · W16LA @ TEN27–23RAMS
2013 · W9TEN @ STL28–21TEN
2009 · W14STL @ TEN7–47TEN
2005 · W3TEN @ STL27–31RAMS
1999 · playoffsSTL @ TEN23–16RAMS
1999 · W8STL @ TEN21–24TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–TEN
TENQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:02773Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 8:3937Punt7–0
LAQ1 6:39624Punt7–0
TENQ1 3:001043Field goal7–3
LAQ2 11:21972Field goal10–3
TENQ2 7:25742Punt10–3
LAQ2 4:2735Punt10–3
TENQ2 3:081056Touchdown10–10
LAQ2 0:3810Turnover10–10
TENQ2 0:27313Field goal10–13
LAQ3 15:001062Field goal13–13
TENQ3 9:291035Field goal13–16
LAQ3 3:32469Touchdown20–16
TENQ3 1:1735Punt20–16
LAQ3 0:03621Punt20–16
TENQ4 11:562-8Turnover20–16
LAQ4 11:09321Touchdown27–16
TENQ4 9:4030Punt27–16
LAQ4 9:08665Touchdown33–16
TENQ4 6:451148Field goal33–19
LAQ4 2:40433End of half33–19

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3329821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams17663.90
Puka Nacua14545.01
Blake Corum5448.81
Matthew Stafford2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams6131061
Puka Nacua89910
Jordan Whittington22420
Tyler Higbee44370
Kyren Williams22140
Davis Allen1181
Tutu Atwell0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward19/3317510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard20924.60
Chimere Dike294.50
Cam Ward482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley36570
Elic Ayomanor46561
Chig Okonkwo46350
Van Jefferson22100
Tyler Lockett2390
Gunnar Helm2290
Tony Pollard0100
Chimere Dike25-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.63