Closing spread
TEN -13.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 11/19 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 6/8 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 28 | 117 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 2 | 75 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Justin Gage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.