Closing spread
TEN -13.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutJason SmithTConcussion· DNP
- OutMarc BulgerQBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableLaJuan RamseyDTWrist· Full
- QuestionableMike KarneyRBNeck· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBBack· DNP
- DNPKenneth DarbyRBIllness
- ProbableBrandon GibsonWRAnkle· Limited
- ProbableDarell ScottDTNeck· Limited
- ProbableDonnie AveryWRShoulder· Limited
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableKyle BollerQBThigh· Limited
Titans
- OutJason JonesDTShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableAhmard HallRBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableColin AllredLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableDavid ThorntonLBHip· Limited
- QuestionableJared CookTEConcussion· Full
- QuestionableNicholas HarperCBForearm· Full
- QuestionableVince YoungQBKnee· DNP
- LimitedKyle Vanden BoschDENot Injury Related
- LimitedTony BrownDTNot Injury Related
- ProbableChris JohnsonRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRBack· Full
- ProbableNate WashingtonWRAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Titans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:37 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:35 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 5:20 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 3:06 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 1:01 | 2 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 0:06 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q2 12:18 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 10:12 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TEN | Q2 8:15 | 5 | 65 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 6:57 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| TEN | Q2 5:26 | 10 | 39 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| LA | Q2 1:04 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| TEN | Q2 0:30 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 0–23 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–23 |
| LA | Q3 12:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–23 |
| TEN | Q3 10:42 | 5 | 55 | Field goal | 0–26 |
| LA | Q3 8:15 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 0–26 |
| TEN | Q3 6:04 | 7 | 23 | Touchdown | 0–33 |
| LA | Q3 2:02 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–33 |
| TEN | Q4 13:02 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–40 |
| LA | Q4 7:31 | 4 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 7–47 |
| LA | Q4 5:44 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 7–47 |
| LA | Q4 2:10 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 7–47 |
| TEN | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–47 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 11/19 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 6/8 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 28 | 117 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 2 | 75 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Justin Gage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.