2017 · Week 16

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

27·23

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

LA -5.5

Total

46

Model margin

+0.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapTitans
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.069
  • 43.3%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.131EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.086
  • 11.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.32CPOE+0.43
  • 41.3%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.73
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2LA @ TEN33–19RAMS
2021 · W9TEN @ LA28–16TEN
2013 · W9TEN @ STL28–21TEN
2009 · W14STL @ TEN7–47TEN
2005 · W3TEN @ STL27–31RAMS
1999 · playoffsSTL @ TEN23–16RAMS
1999 · W8STL @ TEN21–24TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–TEN
LAQ1 15:00958Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ1 11:4122Turnover0–0
LAQ1 11:01449Touchdown6–0
TENQ1 8:541466Field goal6–3
LAQ1 1:131561Missed field goal6–3
TENQ2 7:52515Punt6–9
LAQ2 5:241-7Opp touchdown6–10
LAQ2 5:20279Touchdown13–10
TENQ2 4:241056Field goal13–13
LAQ2 0:1900End of half13–13
TENQ3 15:0034Punt13–13
LAQ3 13:2347Punt13–13
TENQ3 12:21441Missed field goal13–13
LAQ3 9:37765Touchdown20–13
TENQ3 6:40544Touchdown20–20
LAQ3 4:2335Punt20–20
TENQ3 3:26864Field goal20–23
LAQ4 14:46737Touchdown27–23
TENQ4 11:51518Punt27–23
LAQ4 10:0939Punt27–23
TENQ4 8:34419Punt27–23
LAQ4 7:22932Punt27–23
TENQ4 3:25837Turnover on downs27–23
LAQ4 1:3538End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/3830140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley221185.40
Malcolm Brown144.00
Jared Goff3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Gurley10131582
Cooper Kupp46651
Robert Woods38330
Sammy Watkins37301
Tyler Higbee22150
Mike Thomas0100
Josh Reynolds0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota22/3927501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray15483.21
Derrick Henry8253.10
Marcus Mariota3248.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis69910
Eric Decker610730
Rishard Matthews24480
Delanie Walker35330
Jonnu Smith12130
DeMarco Murray34110
Derrick Henry1160
David Fluellen0100
Taywan Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.87