Closing spread
LA -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.069
- 43.3%Success rate42.6%
- +0.131EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.086
- 11.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.32CPOE+0.43
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.27Points / drive1.73
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/38 | 301 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 22 | 118 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 10 | 13 | 158 | 2 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 22/39 | 275 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 6 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 6 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Fluellen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.87