2021 · Week 9

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

28·16

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -7

Total

53.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

LA perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRams
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.082
  • 44.7%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.183
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.089
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.33CPOE-0.40
  • 43.8%Third-down rate42.6%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.15Points / drive2.32
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. LA are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2LA @ TEN33–19RAMS
2017 · W16LA @ TEN27–23RAMS
2013 · W9TEN @ STL28–21TEN
2009 · W14STL @ TEN7–47TEN
2005 · W3TEN @ STL27–31RAMS
1999 · playoffsSTL @ TEN23–16RAMS
1999 · W8STL @ TEN21–24TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–LA
LAQ1 15:00718Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:27419Turnover0–0
LAQ1 8:33949Field goal0–3
TENQ1 3:4635Punt0–3
LAQ1 1:4445Punt0–3
TENQ1 0:1534Punt0–3
LAQ2 14:0339Turnover6–3
TENQ2 12:2512Touchdown7–3
LAQ2 12:2110Opp touchdown14–3
LAQ2 12:1046Punt14–3
TENQ2 9:491444Touchdown21–3
LAQ2 2:1047Punt21–3
TENQ2 1:14620End of half21–3
TENQ3 15:00628Punt21–3
LAQ3 12:301289Field goal21–6
TENQ3 8:15314Punt21–6
LAQ3 5:341035Field goal21–9
TENQ4 14:55830Punt21–9
LAQ4 10:35953Turnover on downs21–9
TENQ4 6:39929Touchdown28–9
LAQ4 3:001576Touchdown28–16
TENQ4 0:2400End of half28–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill19/2714311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman5295.80
Jeremy McNichols7243.40
Adrian Peterson10212.11
Ryan Tannehill231.51
Logan Woodside1-1-1.00
Marcus Johnson1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown511420
Julio Jones44350
Geoff Swaim44291
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine11140
Jeremy McNichols33110
Anthony Firkser1170
Adrian Peterson1150
Chester Rogers0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford31/4829412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson11555.00
Sony Michel7202.90
Matthew Stafford2136.50
Robert Woods166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods710980
Cooper Kupp1113950
Tyler Higbee510510
Van Jefferson37410
Sony Michel2361
Darrell Henderson3430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.60