Closing spread
LA -7
Total
53.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.082
- 44.7%Success rate46.6%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.183
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.33CPOE-0.40
- 43.8%Third-down rate42.6%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.15Points / drive2.32
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. LA are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/27 | 143 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Logan Woodside | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 11 | 42 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 4 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 31/48 | 294 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 7 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 13 | 95 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.60