2013 · Week 9

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

28·21

Rams

St. Louis

QB Kellen Clemens

Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

41

Model margin

+2.7est.

STL perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. STL are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2LA @ TEN33–19RAMS
2021 · W9TEN @ LA28–16TEN
2017 · W16LA @ TEN27–23RAMS
2009 · W14STL @ TEN7–47TEN
2005 · W3TEN @ STL27–31RAMS
1999 · playoffsSTL @ TEN23–16RAMS
1999 · W8STL @ TEN21–24TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–STL
TENQ1 15:00844Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 11:531066Turnover7–0
TENQ1 5:39514Punt7–0
LAQ1 2:421375Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 9:37640Punt7–7
LAQ2 5:4935Punt7–7
TENQ2 4:153-9Punt7–7
LAQ2 2:52517Punt7–7
TENQ2 1:17310Turnover7–7
LAQ2 0:4430Missed field goal7–7
TENQ2 0:26515End of half7–7
LAQ3 15:001080Touchdown7–14
TENQ3 9:09870Touchdown14–14
LAQ3 4:5836Punt14–14
TENQ3 3:28419Punt14–14
LAQ3 1:2536Punt14–14
TENQ4 15:001071Touchdown21–14
LAQ4 9:42765Touchdown21–21
TENQ4 6:15346Turnover21–21
LAQ4 4:4448Turnover27–21
TENQ4 2:59119Touchdown28–21
LAQ4 2:5430Punt28–21
TENQ4 2:27525Punt28–21
LAQ4 0:50535Turnover on downs28–21
TENQ4 0:1000End of half28–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker13/2218502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson231506.52
Shonn Greene9384.21
Jake Locker3103.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright35690
Shonn Greene11280
Collin Mooney11220
Chris Johnson34200
Damian Williams11200
Delanie Walker22130
Justin Hunter22130
Nate Washington0400
Craig Stevens0100
Kenny Britt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

6.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.62
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+2.74

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.