Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. STL are 1-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 13/22 | 185 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 23 | 150 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Shonn Greene | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jake Locker | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Collin Mooney | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
6.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.62
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+2.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.