Closing spread
STL -7
Total
48
Model margin
+3.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. TEN are 6-1-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:40 | 8 | 42 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:48 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:00 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:39 | 5 | 53 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 14:48 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:29 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| TEN | Q2 4:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LA | Q2 3:38 | 16 | 72 | Field goal | 9–0 |
| TEN | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–0 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 43 | Missed field goal | 9–0 |
| LA | Q3 11:19 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 16–0 |
| TEN | Q3 7:20 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 16–6 |
| LA | Q3 0:14 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 16–6 |
| TEN | Q4 14:36 | 13 | 79 | Touchdown | 16–13 |
| LA | Q4 7:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–13 |
| TEN | Q4 6:17 | 7 | 28 | Field goal | 16–16 |
| LA | Q4 2:12 | 1 | 73 | Touchdown | 23–16 |
| TEN | Q4 1:54 | 11 | 62 | End of half | 23–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 22/36 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 28 | 95 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Harris | 7 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.