Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
41
Model margin
+3.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.023
- 40.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.308EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- 38.3%Third-down rate41.9%
- 42.5%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.36Points / drive1.55
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 13–7 since 1999
ARI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.7 points. DAL are 9-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 9:43 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 8:36 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q1 7:37 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q1 2:57 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q2 12:53 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q2 10:35 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q2 9:39 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q2 3:11 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DAL | Q2 2:03 | 7 | 43 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| ARI | Q2 1:00 | 6 | 13 | End of half | 10–24 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| ARI | Q3 13:15 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| DAL | Q3 11:13 | 14 | 63 | Field goal | 13–27 |
| ARI | Q3 3:03 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 13–27 |
| DAL | Q4 14:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–33 |
| ARI | Q4 12:09 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 13–34 |
| ARI | Q4 11:54 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 13–34 |
| DAL | Q4 8:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–34 |
| ARI | Q4 6:19 | 8 | 19 | Turnover | 13–34 |
| DAL | Q4 2:41 | 5 | 16 | End of half | 13–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 16/33 | 161 | 1 | 2 |
| Anquan Boldin | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/24 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Tyson Thompson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.28