2005 · Week 8

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh McCown

13·34

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Drew Bledsoe

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

41

Model margin

+3.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.7%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.308EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 38.3%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 42.5%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.55
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown16/3316112
Anquan Boldin0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcel Shipp12443.70
Josh McCown4164.00
Larry Fitzgerald155.00
J.J. Arrington451.30
Obafemi Ayanbadejo210.50
Anquan Boldin100.00

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe19/2422010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber271274.72
Tyson Thompson4194.80
Drew Bledsoe100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.31
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.28