Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 21 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:34 | 7 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:00 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:21 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:57 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:54 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q2 3:37 | 11 | 57 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:38 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:26 | 4 | 3 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q3 11:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:38 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q3 8:25 | 9 | 50 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:51 | 14 | 61 | Touchdown | 28–20 |
| LAC | Q4 12:27 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 31–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 8:35 | 7 | 48 | Touchdown | 31–26 |
| LAC | Q4 6:14 | 6 | 7 | Turnover | 31–26 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:06 | 11 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 31–26 |
| LAC | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 11/20 | 106 | 2 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 6/11 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Cedric Houston | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.11
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.