Closing spread
SD -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 11/20 | 106 | 2 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 6/11 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Cedric Houston | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.11
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.