2017 · Week 16

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

14·7

Jets

New York

QB Bryce Petty

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LAC -7.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-6.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapJets
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.073
  • 44.9%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.191EPA / dropback-0.000
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.181
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.86CPOE+0.98
  • 40.7%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.51
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 7–5 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9LAC @ NYJ27–6CHARGERS
2020 · W11NYJ @ LAC28–34CHARGERS
2014 · W5NYJ @ SD0–31CHARGERS
2012 · W16SD @ NYJ27–17CHARGERS
2011 · W7SD @ NYJ21–27NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ SD17–14NYJ
2008 · W3NYJ @ SD29–48CHARGERS
2005 · W9SD @ NYJ31–26CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–NYJ
LACQ1 15:0000Punt0–0
NYJQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:04623Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:1238Punt0–0
LACQ1 7:52515Punt0–0
NYJQ1 5:16520Punt0–0
LACQ1 3:05621Punt0–0
NYJQ1 0:1330Punt0–0
LACQ2 14:411369Touchdown7–0
NYJQ2 8:55451Turnover7–0
LACQ2 7:00427Punt7–0
NYJQ2 4:54628Punt7–0
LACQ2 2:13533Punt7–0
NYJQ2 0:42720Turnover7–0
NYJQ3 15:0033Punt7–0
LACQ3 13:02440Missed field goal7–0
NYJQ3 11:22363Touchdown7–7
LACQ3 10:00880Touchdown14–7
NYJQ3 4:5739Punt14–7
LACQ3 3:35424Punt14–7
NYJQ3 1:30422Punt14–7
LACQ4 14:13511Punt14–7
NYJQ4 12:30416Punt14–7
LACQ4 9:38310Punt14–7
NYJQ4 7:581243Turnover on downs14–7
LACQ4 3:07926Punt14–7
NYJQ4 0:0315Turnover14–7

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers22/4029010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon19814.31
Branden Oliver891.10
Philip Rivers100.00
Travis Benjamin1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Gates68811
Keenan Allen510630
Tyrell Williams56500
Melvin Gordon33470
Sean McGrath22260
Travis Benjamin0500
Branden Oliver0100
Mike Williams0300

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Petty15/2811901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell191457.61
Bryce Petty33311.00
Matt Forte8192.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen57510
Jermaine Kearse58420
Austin Seferian-Jenkins48210
Matt Forte1170
Bilal Powell0100
Elijah McGuire0100
Chad Hansen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.2%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.3%6.1%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

32.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.31
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-6.27