Closing spread
LAC -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-6.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.073
- 44.9%Success rate38.5%
- +0.191EPA / dropback-0.000
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.181
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.86CPOE+0.98
- 40.7%Third-down rate36.0%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.87Points / drive1.51
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYJ are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 22/40 | 290 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 19 | 81 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Branden Oliver | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gates | 6 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Petty | 15/28 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 19 | 145 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Bryce Petty | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 4 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Hansen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
32.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.31
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-6.27